Gamba Osaka 2-1 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Apr 2024

Gamba Osaka
2-1 HT 1-1
Sagan Tosu
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Gamba Osaka vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.57
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
19%
4.33
X/2
7%
7.79
X/X
11%
4.7
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
12%
5.87
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.1
Value flag · 2/X at 14.1 — our 11% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gamba Osaka v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.58/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.45
-13% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
375 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 77%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
15.7 Crosses 15.4
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.4

Gamba Osaka vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.12 xG 1.14
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
380 Passes 398
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
25.02.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
03.09.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-3 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
29.05.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-1 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
23.10.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
14.04.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP

Gamba Osaka 2-1 Sagan Tosu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
2-1
AWAY Sagan Tosu
3.62 xG 0.85
66% Ball Possession 34%
28 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 4
16 Corners 3
532 Passes 242
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
54 Box Touches 13
53 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka edged past Sagan Tosu 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gamba Osaka as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 66% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 34%, shots finished 28-12, expected goals 3.62 to 0.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gamba Osaka's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.17 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Sagan Tosu?

Gamba Osaka 2-1 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 45%, draw 29%, Sagan Tosu 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5
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