Valmiera / BSS 0-1 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 14 Apr 2024

Valmiera / BSS
0-1 HT 0-1
Liepaja
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Latvia - Virsliga – 2024

Valmiera / BSS vs Liepaja Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
62%
-5.9pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.2pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.1pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valmiera / BSS v Liepaja — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
2.06/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/3.24
+9% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
379 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 72%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.4
27.9 Crosses 11.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1

Valmiera / BSS vs Liepaja Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera / BSS
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Liepaja
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.17 xG 0.86
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
418 Passes 136
82% Pass Accuracy 60%
36 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-4 HT 0-2 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
29.06.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 1-1 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
27.05.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-2 HT 1-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
18.03.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
12.11.2022 Liepaja Liepaja 0-2 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
04.09.2022 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET

Valmiera / BSS 0-1 Liepaja — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valmiera / BSS
0-1
AWAY Liepaja
1.40 xG 0.23
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 3
1 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
356 Passes 136
77% Pass Accuracy 56%
35 Box Touches 1
38 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valmiera / BSS vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja edged past Valmiera / BSS 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Valmiera / BSS at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Valmiera / BSS had 67% of the ball to Liepaja's 33%, shots finished 20-3, expected goals 1.40 to 0.23 — the balance of chances actually favoured Valmiera / BSS.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valmiera / BSS had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Valmiera / BSS and 0.83 for Liepaja.

What was the final score of Valmiera / BSS vs Liepaja?

Valmiera / BSS 0-1 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera / BSS vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Valmiera / BSS 57%, draw 22%, Liepaja 21%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →