Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-3 Monarcas Morelia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒02:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.2pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -23%
1.68/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.58
+26% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
05.10.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 0-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
14.04.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
22.10.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
27.08.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-3 HT 0-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
30.01.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 0-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
24.09.2021 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Monarcas Morelia shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.33 for Monarcas Morelia.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-3 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alebrijes de Oaxaca win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 38%, draw 28%, Monarcas Morelia 34%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Alebrijes de Oaxaca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alebrijes de Oaxaca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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