Fluminense 1-0 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.35
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
17%
5.46
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.4
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
15.65
X/1
17%
4.05
X/2
10%
9.42
X/X
12%
3.92
2/1
11%
31.0
2/2
11%
8.67
2/X
6%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.5pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.59/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.39
-6% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
393 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 78%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
23.7 Crosses 17.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Santos
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.38 xG 0.92
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
464 Passes 278
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2023 Santos Santos 0-3 HT 0-2 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
29.07.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
02.08.2022 Santos Santos 2-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
09.04.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
28.10.2021 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
18.06.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Santos
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
449 Passes 293
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Santos 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Fluminense had 59% of the ball to Santos's 41%, shots finished 13-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fluminense and 0.67 for Santos.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Santos?

Fluminense 1-0 Santos in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 47%, draw 28%, Santos 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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