Rivers United 3-1 Heartland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.34
Draw
29%
4.34
Away
11%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.86
Over 2.5
37%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.29
No
64%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
70%
-10.2pp
29%
Draw
20%
+9.4pp
11%
Away Win
10%
+0.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
50%
+13.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
50%
-13.0pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-3.2pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rivers United EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Heartland EU Bookmakers 14%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
1.96/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/1.86
+9% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rivers United
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Heartland
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
24.01.2022 Rivers United Rivers United 3-1 HT 2-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
06.06.2021 Heartland Heartland 2-2 HT 1-1 Rivers United Rivers United NIJ
17.01.2021 Rivers United Rivers United 3-1 HT 1-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rivers United
3-1
AWAY Heartland
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rivers United vs Heartland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rivers United beat Heartland 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rivers United as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rivers United had 59% of the ball to Heartland's 41%, shots finished 21-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rivers United had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Rivers United and 1.33 for Heartland.

What was the final score of Rivers United vs Heartland?

Rivers United 3-1 Heartland in the Nigeria NPFL on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rivers United vs Heartland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rivers United win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Rivers United 60%, draw 29%, Heartland 11%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rivers United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rivers United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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