Sporting Gijon 2-1 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 14 Oct 2024

📅14/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.62
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.1
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
18%
4.96
X/2
8%
6.32
X/X
14%
4.88
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.35
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+2.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +33%
1.27/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.90
+8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +95% / +30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 79%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
19.4 Crosses 12.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
2W-1D-3L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.68 xG 0.59
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
448 Passes 258
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.01.2021 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
02.11.2020 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
08.06.2008 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
13.01.2008 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-2 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
15.04.2007 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-2 HT 1-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
12.11.2006 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-3 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
2-1
AWAY CD Castellon
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
332 Passes 268
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Gijon edged past CD Castellon 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Gijon as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 54% of the ball to CD Castellon's 46%, shots finished 17-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Castellon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.17 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs CD Castellon?

Sporting Gijon 2-1 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 45%, draw 27%, CD Castellon 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Gijon), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →