Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-5 Celaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 14 Oct 2024

📅14/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
43%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
43%
Away Win
51%
-7.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Celaya EU Bookmakers 55%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
0.79/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.37
-33% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -20%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
239 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Celaya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
26.02.2024 Celaya Celaya 2-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
16.08.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1 HT 2-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
12.01.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-1 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
22.09.2022 Celaya Celaya 2-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
02.03.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
21.10.2021 Celaya Celaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Celaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya cruised past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 5-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.17 for Celaya.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Celaya?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-5 Celaya in the Mexico - Primera A on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Celaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 32%, draw 25%, Celaya 43%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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