Birmingham Legion 0-3 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 14 Oct 2024

📅14/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.33
Over 2.5
49%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
23%
2.81
6+ Goals
10%
7.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.81 — our 25% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.7pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 37%
-21% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.43/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.69
-17% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
17.4 Crosses 16.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham Legion
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.48 xG 1.65
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
366 Passes 395
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.07.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 3-3 HT 0-2 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
19.05.2022 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 0-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham Legion
0-3
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
0.82 xG 1.19
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 4
288 Passes 426
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Birmingham Legion vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights cruised past Birmingham Legion 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Birmingham Legion at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Birmingham Legion had 43% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 57%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 0.82 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Birmingham Legion and 1.50 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of Birmingham Legion vs Las Vegas Lights?

Birmingham Legion 0-3 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham Legion vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Birmingham Legion 45%, draw 24%, Las Vegas Lights 31%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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