Derby County 3-2 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 15 Jan 2024

Derby County
3-2 HT 1-0
Burton Albion
📅15/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Derby County vs Burton Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.29
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.47
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
23.45
X/1
18%
3.38
X/2
5%
20.55
X/X
9%
7.65
2/1
7%
23.45
2/2
7%
16.55
2/X
8%
23.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
73%
-11.7pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.2pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Burton Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 12%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.87/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.87
-8% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -9%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
444 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 69%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
27.3 Crosses 13.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Derby County vs Burton Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Burton Albion
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.74 xG 0.99
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
301 Passes 212
68% Pass Accuracy 63%
26 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-3 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
22.04.2023 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
10.12.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
20.07.2019 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-5 HT 1-3 Derby County Derby County HAZ
14.04.2018 Burton Albion Burton Albion 3-1 HT 2-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
02.12.2017 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL

Derby County 3-2 Burton Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
3-2
AWAY Burton Albion
1.80 xG 0.81
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
380 Passes 137
80% Pass Accuracy 54%
29 Box Touches 9
35 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County edged past Burton Albion 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Derby County had 66% of the ball to Burton Albion's 34%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.80 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Derby County and 1.00 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Burton Albion?

Derby County 3-2 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 15/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Derby County 61%, draw 22%, Burton Albion 16%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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