Necaxa 2-1 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Jan 2024

Necaxa
2-1 HT 0-1
Atlas
📅15/01/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Necaxa vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.54
Over 2.5
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
5.3
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.56
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
15%
5.69
X/2
10%
4.83
X/X
13%
3.6
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
17%
3.64
2/X
8%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+5.8pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.1pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-2.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Atlas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 42%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.06/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.42
-1% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
269 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.4 Crosses 18.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Necaxa vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atlas
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.64 xG 1.59
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
279 Passes 283
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
22.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-3 HT 0-3 Atlas Atlas MEK
02.10.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
08.04.2022 Atlas Atlas 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
18.09.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 0-3 HT 0-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
01.05.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 1-5 HT 1-2 Atlas Atlas MEK

Necaxa 2-1 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
2-1
AWAY Atlas
1.45 xG 0.28
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
333 Passes 293
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
35 Box Touches 14
33 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa squeezed past Atlas 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Necaxa found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Necaxa had 54% of the ball to Atlas's 46%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.45 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Necaxa and 2.33 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Atlas?

Necaxa 2-1 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 15/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 38%, draw 27%, Atlas 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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