Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Jan 2024

Vitoria Guimaraes
2-1 HT 1-1
Arouca
📅15/01/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.82
Over 2.5
54%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.69
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.69 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.71
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
9%
4.36
X/2
10%
7.14
X/X
10%
4.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
25.0
2/2
14%
5.4
2/X
8%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
51%
-5.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
49%
+5.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.0pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.59/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.27
+6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +33%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
23.8 Crosses 17.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Arouca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.53 xG 1.27
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
324 Passes 305
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.03.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
18.09.2022 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.02.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 1-3 Arouca Arouca POR
18.09.2021 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.11.2020 Arouca Arouca 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
07.05.2017 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-1
AWAY Arouca
2.35 xG 1.23
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
327 Passes 359
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 14
34 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes edged past Arouca 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 49% of the ball to Arouca's 51%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.35 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.50 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 45%, draw 25%, Arouca 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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