15/02/2025
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Baden vs Lugano II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
61%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
5%
X/X
5%
2/1
12%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
40%
23%
Draw
29%
31%
Away Win
31%
63%
Under 2.5
41%
37%
Over 2.5
59%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Baden v Lugano II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Baden
EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY
Lugano II
EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% /
+1%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-21% /
-21%
1.50/1.62
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.96/2.10
-10%
/
-5%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-37%
/
-18%
50%
Ball Possession
50%
5
Total Shots
17
4
Shots on Target
13
3
Corners
2
0 · 0%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
0 · 0%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
1.0
POST-MATCH
Baden vs Lugano II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Baden edged past Lugano II 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Baden as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Baden vs Lugano II?
Baden 1-0 Lugano II in the Switzerland - 1st Division Yükselme on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Baden vs Lugano II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Baden win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Baden 46%, draw 23%, Lugano II 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Baden), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Baden)
✓ Under 2.5
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İSV1Y
More Switzerland - 1st Division Yükselme
15 Feb 2025