Orlando Pirates 3-1 Baroka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Cup, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.22
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.51
No
57%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.0
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.63
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 28% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
78%
-12.7pp
18%
Draw
16%
+1.8pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+10.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
36%
+6.9pp
57%
BTTS No
64%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando Pirates EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Baroka EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
417 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando Pirates
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Baroka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.22 xG 0.71
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
430 Passes 183
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
17 Box Touches 9
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.04.2022 Baroka Baroka 0-0 HT 0-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
02.12.2021 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 0-0 HT 0-0 Baroka Baroka GAFPSL
02.06.2021 Baroka Baroka 1-2 HT 1-1 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
28.11.2020 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 1-1 HT 0-0 Baroka Baroka GAFPSL
18.08.2020 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 1-1 HT 1-1 Baroka Baroka GAFPSL
07.12.2019 Baroka Baroka 2-2 HT 0-1 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando Pirates
3-1
AWAY Baroka
1.92 xG 0.40
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
484 Passes 246
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 11
9 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orlando Pirates vs Baroka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando Pirates got the better of Baroka 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orlando Pirates as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orlando Pirates had 58% of the ball to Baroka's 42%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.92 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando Pirates had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orlando Pirates and 0.83 for Baroka.

What was the final score of Orlando Pirates vs Baroka?

Orlando Pirates 3-1 Baroka in the South Afrika - Cup on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando Pirates vs Baroka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando Pirates win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Orlando Pirates 65%, draw 18%, Baroka 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando Pirates) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orlando Pirates) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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