Empoli 0-1 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.5
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.76
6+ Goals
10%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.99
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
5%
14.65
X/1
7%
7.28
X/2
9%
4.29
X/X
14%
3.88
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.84
2/X
8%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+5.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna EU Bookmakers 49%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.11/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.33
-7% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -34%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
255 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
16.6 Crosses 17.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bologna
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.22 xG 1.89
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
227 Passes 399
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Bologna Bologna 3-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
04.05.2023 Empoli Empoli 3-1 HT 2-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
17.09.2022 Bologna Bologna 0-1 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
06.02.2022 Bologna Bologna 0-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
26.09.2021 Empoli Empoli 4-2 HT 2-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
27.04.2019 Bologna Bologna 3-1 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
0-1
AWAY Bologna
0.97 xG 2.39
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 6
184 Passes 612
73% Pass Accuracy 90%
19 Box Touches 30
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Bologna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna squeezed past Empoli 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bologna as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Empoli had 29% of the ball to Bologna's 71%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 0.97 to 2.39 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bologna's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Empoli and 1.50 for Bologna.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Bologna?

Empoli 0-1 Bologna in the Italy - Serie A on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Bologna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Empoli 31%, draw 27%, Bologna 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bologna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bologna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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