Newcastle Jets 0-1 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 15 Mar 2024

Newcastle Jets
0-1 HT 0-0
Adelaide United
📅15/03/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.96
Over 2.5
56%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.35
No
44%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.26
2-3 Goals
40%
2.22
4-5 Goals
25%
2.44
6+ Goals
13%
4.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.86
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
24.45
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
16%
5.57
X/2
13%
6.82
X/X
8%
6.62
2/1
7%
20.55
2/2
15%
3.77
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.45 — our 6% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
30%
+14.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
70%
-14.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
70%
-14.1pp
44%
BTTS No
30%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
2.00/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.75
+3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 81%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
20.8 Crosses 22.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.51 xG 2.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
338 Passes 367
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.12.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
11.03.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-4 HT 2-3 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
27.12.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
13.03.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
30.01.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-2 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
21.03.2021 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-4 HT 0-4 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Newcastle Jets 0-1 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
0-1
AWAY Adelaide United
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 14
305 Passes 282
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United nicked a narrow win over Newcastle Jets 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle Jets at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 50% of the ball to Adelaide United's 50%, shots finished 11-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Newcastle Jets and 2.50 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?

Newcastle Jets 0-1 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 42%, draw 23%, Adelaide United 35%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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