Toulouse 2-3 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 Mar 2024

Toulouse
2-3 HT 0-1
Lyon
📅15/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.15
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.73
6+ Goals
8%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 27% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.87
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
14%
5.67
X/2
10%
5.51
X/X
13%
4.33
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
20%
3.71
2/X
7%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toulouse v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -16%
1.25/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.67
-5% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
17.5 Crosses 15.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

Toulouse vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Lyon
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.94 xG 1.54
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
324 Passes 546
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Lyon Lyon 3-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
14.04.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
07.10.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
26.01.2020 Lyon Lyon 3-0 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.12.2019 Lyon Lyon 4-1 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FRLK
02.11.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Toulouse 2-3 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
2-3
AWAY Lyon
2.40 xG 1.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
388 Passes 383
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon nicked a narrow win over Toulouse 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Lyon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Toulouse had 50% of the ball to Lyon's 50%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 2.40 to 1.45 — on chances, Toulouse could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toulouse and 2.67 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Lyon?

Toulouse 2-3 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 35%, draw 27%, Lyon 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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