Osijek 0-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 15 Mar 2024

Osijek
0-1 HT 0-1
NK Varazdin
📅15/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2023/2024

Osijek vs NK Varazdin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 31% vs market 26.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.2pp
31%
Draw
25%
+6.1pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Osijek v NK Varazdin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.59/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.36
-13% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
24.1 Crosses 15.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Osijek vs NK Varazdin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.92 xG 1.85
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
292 Passes 289
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
22.09.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.04.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-3 HT 0-2 Osijek Osijek HIR
26.02.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
09.11.2022 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIRK
22.10.2022 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 4-1 HT 3-1 Osijek Osijek HIR

Osijek 0-1 NK Varazdin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
0-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.96 xG 0.35
66% Ball Possession 34%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
367 Passes 150
81% Pass Accuracy 63%
28 Box Touches 13
43 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osijek vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin edged past Osijek 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Osijek at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Osijek had 66% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 34%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.96 to 0.35 — the balance of chances actually favoured Osijek.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Osijek and 1.67 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Osijek vs NK Varazdin?

Osijek 0-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Osijek 46%, draw 31%, NK Varazdin 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Osijek) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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