Torreense 0-1 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Mar 2024

Torreense
0-1 HT 0-0
Tondela
📅15/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Torreense vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.52
Over
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.31
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
20%
5.29
6+
8%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.1pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.9pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Torreense v Tondela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Torreense EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +9%
1.34/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.03
-20% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
273 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.8 Crosses 16.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Torreense vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Torreense
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Tondela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
0.69 xG 1.79
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
281 Passes 281
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Torreense Torreense 1-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POK
05.11.2023 Tondela Tondela 1-2 HT 1-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
04.03.2023 Tondela Tondela 1-1 HT 0-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
24.11.2022 Tondela Tondela 1-1 HT 1-0 Torreense Torreense PORLC
11.09.2022 Torreense Torreense 0-3 HT 0-3 Tondela Tondela POR2

Torreense 0-1 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Torreense
0-1
AWAY Tondela
0.69 xG 0.90
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 5
391 Passes 165
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
38 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Torreense vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela edged past Torreense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Tondela found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Torreense had 67% of the ball to Tondela's 33%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.69 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Torreense and 1.40 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Torreense vs Tondela?

Torreense 0-1 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Torreense vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Torreense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Torreense 38%, draw 30%, Tondela 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Torreense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Torreense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →