Nanjing City 2-1 Changchun YaTai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
12%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.4pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nanjing City EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 49%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +43% / +43%
1.80/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/0.00
+69% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +120% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.1 Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nanjing City
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Changchun YaTai
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
22.06.2023 Nanjing City Nanjing City 3-4 HT 0-1 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİNK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nanjing City
2-1
AWAY Changchun YaTai
0.72 xG 0.55
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
156 Passes 343
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
6 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nanjing City vs Changchun YaTai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nanjing City edged past Changchun YaTai 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Changchun YaTai at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Nanjing City had 35% of the ball to Changchun YaTai's 65%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.72 to 0.55.

What was the final score of Nanjing City vs Changchun YaTai?

Nanjing City 2-1 Changchun YaTai in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nanjing City vs Changchun YaTai?

Before kick-off our model rated an Changchun YaTai win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Nanjing City 29%, draw 26%, Changchun YaTai 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Changchun YaTai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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