Osasuna 0-1 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 Apr 2024

Osasuna
0-1 HT 0-1
Valencia
📅15/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Osasuna vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.2
2-3 Goals
45%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
5.69
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.42
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
11%
14.3
X/1
17%
4.63
X/2
12%
6.15
X/X
16%
3.51
2/1
11%
34.5
2/2
12%
5.11
2/X
5%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.7pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.5pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Osasuna v Valencia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.30/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.30
-11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.4 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Osasuna vs Valencia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Valencia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.43 xG 1.46
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
235 Passes 299
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
11.03.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
07.10.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 1-2 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
16.04.2022 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
12.09.2021 Osasuna Osasuna 1-4 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
21.04.2021 Osasuna Osasuna 3-1 HT 2-1 Valencia Valencia İS1

Osasuna 0-1 Valencia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
0-1
AWAY Valencia
1.93 xG 0.22
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
484 Passes 223
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 11
37 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia edged past Osasuna 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 29%) promised a tight game; Valencia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Osasuna had 65% of the ball to Valencia's 35%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 1.93 to 0.22 — on chances, Osasuna could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Osasuna and 1.67 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Valencia?

Osasuna 0-1 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 39%, draw 32%, Valencia 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Osasuna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osasuna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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