Vitoria 0-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 15 Apr 2024

Vitoria
0-1 HT 0-1
Palmeiras
📅15/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Vitoria vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.72
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.3
6+ Goals
10%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.38
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
11%
7.89
X/2
12%
4.01
X/X
15%
4.58
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.51
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+2.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -2%
1.09/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.04
+8% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 81%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
23.5 Crosses 20.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Vitoria vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.68 xG 2.16
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
269 Passes 430
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
19.08.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-3 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
09.11.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 3-1 HT 3-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
16.07.2017 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-2 HT 2-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.12.2016 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
07.08.2016 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1

Vitoria 0-1 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
0-1
AWAY Palmeiras
1.32 xG 0.73
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
339 Passes 241
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras edged past Vitoria 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Vitoria had 56% of the ball to Palmeiras's 44%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.32 to 0.73 — on chances, Vitoria could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria and 2.50 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Palmeiras?

Vitoria 0-1 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 30%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5
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