Samgurali 2-3 Saburtalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 15 Apr 2024

Samgurali
2-3 HT 2-1
Saburtalo
📅15/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Georgia - Erovnuli Liga – 2024

Samgurali vs Saburtalo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
28%
+8.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
37%
Away Win
46%
-9.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Samgurali v Saburtalo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samgurali EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 50%
+14% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -24%
0.98/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.25
-13% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
266 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Samgurali vs Saburtalo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samgurali
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Saburtalo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.11.2023 Saburtalo 2-2 HT 2-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
07.11.2023 Saburtalo 2-1 HT 1-0 Samgurali Samgurali GURCK
17.09.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 1-0 HT 1-0 Saburtalo GUR
24.05.2023 Saburtalo 5-1 HT 1-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
09.04.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 2-1 HT 0-0 Saburtalo GUR
01.10.2022 Samgurali Samgurali 0-3 HT 0-2 Saburtalo GUR

Samgurali 2-3 Saburtalo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samgurali
2-3
AWAY Saburtalo
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Samgurali vs Saburtalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo squeezed past Samgurali 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Saburtalo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Samgurali had 47% of the ball to Saburtalo's 53%, shots finished 16-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Samgurali and 2.17 for Saburtalo.

What was the final score of Samgurali vs Saburtalo?

Samgurali 2-3 Saburtalo in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samgurali vs Saburtalo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Samgurali 36%, draw 27%, Saburtalo 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saburtalo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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