Vizela 0-1 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Apr 2024

Vizela
0-1 HT 0-1
Chaves
📅15/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Vizela vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.85
6+ Goals
10%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 28% vs market 27.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
9%
4.45
X/2
12%
7.03
X/X
13%
4.47
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
12%
5.35
2/X
6%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vizela v Chaves — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 30%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.71/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.55
-3% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
23.3 Crosses 18.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Vizela vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Chaves
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
296 Passes 315
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.12.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 1-1 Vizela Vizela POR
10.02.2023 Vizela Vizela 0-0 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR
22.11.2022 Vizela Vizela 2-2 HT 1-1 Chaves Chaves PORLC
20.08.2022 Chaves Chaves 1-1 HT 1-1 Vizela Vizela POR
26.02.2021 Chaves Chaves 2-2 HT 0-1 Vizela Vizela POR2
05.10.2020 Vizela Vizela 1-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR2

Vizela 0-1 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
0-1
AWAY Chaves
1.27 xG 1.02
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 5
444 Passes 200
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 13
48 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves squeezed past Vizela 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Vizela at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Vizela had 66% of the ball to Chaves's 34%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.27 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vizela and 1.33 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Chaves?

Vizela 0-1 Chaves in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vizela 43%, draw 26%, Chaves 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Vizela) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vizela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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