North Carolina 1-1 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Apr 2024

North Carolina
1-1 HT 1-1
Birmingham Legion
📅15/04/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

North Carolina vs Birmingham Legion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.0
Over
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
3.74
2-3
41%
1.82
4-5
20%
3.25
6+
11%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.74 — our 28% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

North Carolina v Birmingham Legion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -14%
1.11/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.43
-46% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
20.2 Crosses 15.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

North Carolina vs Birmingham Legion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 1.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
357 Passes 351
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.09.2020 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-2 HT 0-2 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
03.09.2020 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-2 HT 0-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
16.08.2020 North Carolina North Carolina 0-2 HT 0-2 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
02.08.2020 North Carolina North Carolina 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
24.10.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 2-3 HT 1-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
14.07.2019 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP

North Carolina 1-1 Birmingham Legion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
1-1
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.83 xG 1.13
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 5
464 Passes 443
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina and Birmingham Legion couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, North Carolina had 51% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 49%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.83 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for North Carolina and 1.33 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Birmingham Legion?

North Carolina 1-1 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 39%, draw 27%, Birmingham Legion 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (North Carolina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (North Carolina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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