Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle United — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - Premier League, 15 May 2024)

Manchester United

3-2 HT 1-0

Newcastle United

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗

England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Manchester United vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

43%

2.46

Draw

26%

3.64

Away

31%

2.35

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45%

2.89

Over 2.5

55%

1.38

Both Teams to Score

Yes

57%

1.35

43%

2.95

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

22%

6.86

2-3 Goals

38%

2.17

4-5 Goals

28%

2.48

6+ Goals

12%

4.95

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

23%

3.48

1/2

22.3

1/X

12.1

X/1

15%

6.41

X/2

5.97

X/X

11%

6.24

2/1

23.6

2/2

13%

3.16

2/X

12.05

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

43%

Home Win

37%

+6.4pp

26%

Draw

24%

+2.0pp

30%

Away Win

39%

-8.3pp

45%

Under 2.5

31%

+14.2pp

55%

Over 2.5

69%

-14.2pp

57%

BTTS Yes

70%

-13.5pp

43%

BTTS No

30%

+13.5pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 41%

Head to Head

AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 43%

+18% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%

1.68/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.39

+38% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -22%

49% Ball Possession 51%

15 Total Shots 12

5 Shots on Target 4

6 Corners 5

366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%

24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0

16.4 Crosses 12.5

2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Manchester United vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Manchester United

1W-2D-3L

AWAY Newcastle United

0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17

0.90 xG 1.74

55% Ball Possession 45%

12 Total Shots 15

3 Shots on Target 4

4 Corners 5

354 Passes 280

78% Pass Accuracy 75%

17 Box Touches 30

17 Crosses 13

4 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

02.12.2023 Newcastle United

1-0 HT 0-0

Manchester United İNP

01.11.2023 Manchester United

0-3 HT 0-2

Newcastle United İNLK

02.04.2023 Newcastle United

2-0 HT 0-0

Manchester United İNP

26.02.2023 Manchester United

2-0 HT 2-0

Newcastle United İNLK

16.10.2022 Manchester United

0-0 HT 0-0

Newcastle United İNP

27.12.2021 Newcastle United

1-1 HT 1-0

Manchester United İNP

Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Manchester United

3-2

AWAY Newcastle United

1.48 xG 2.19

44% Ball Possession 56%

17 Total Shots 21

8 Shots on Target 8

9 Corners 9

283 Passes 365

78% Pass Accuracy 84%

34 Box Touches 44

10 Crosses 31

3 Yellow Cards 3

POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Newcastle United

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United squeezed past Newcastle United 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Manchester United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Manchester United had 44% of the ball to Newcastle United's 56%, shots finished 17-21, expected goals 1.48 to 2.19 — the balance of chances actually favoured Newcastle United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Manchester United and 1.17 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Newcastle United?

Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 43%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes

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İNP More England - Premier League

15 May 2024

21:45 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea Analysis →

Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 15 May 2024

Manchester United vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

Manchester United v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

Manchester United vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

Manchester United 3-2 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Newcastle United?

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Newcastle United?