15/06/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-2
2nd Score
2-2
Sarpsborg 08 II vs Frigg Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
20%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Over 2.5
BTTS Yes
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
27%
Draw
20%
48%
Away Win
58%
41%
Under 2.5
24%
59%
Over 2.5
76%
56%
BTTS Yes
70%
44%
BTTS No
30%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sarpsborg 08 II v Frigg — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Sarpsborg 08 II
EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY
Frigg
EU Bookmakers 62%
+9% /
+9%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-24% /
-24%
1.17/2.05
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
2.10/1.89
-29%
/
+12%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-16%
/
-18%
47%
Ball Possession
53%
11
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
4
303 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
422 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
0.3
Yellow Cards
1.3
POST-MATCH
Sarpsborg 08 II vs Frigg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Frigg beat Sarpsborg 08 II 2-0 away from home.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Frigg as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 II vs Frigg?
Sarpsborg 08 II 0-2 Frigg in the Norway - 3rd Division on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 II vs Frigg?
Before kick-off our model rated an Frigg win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 II 26%, draw 27%, Frigg 48%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Frigg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Frigg)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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NOR4
More Norway - 3rd Division
15 Jun 2024