Aarau 1-0 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Cup, 15 Sep 2024

Aarau
1-0 HT 0-0
Luzern
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.48
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
59%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
22%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+2.1pp
19%
Draw
24%
-4.3pp
59%
Away Win
57%
+2.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 61%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.05/2.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.52/0.86
-24% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +51%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Luzern
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 9
04.05.2021 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSVK
03.07.2019 Luzern Luzern 3-0 HT 2-0 Aarau Aarau HAZ
05.10.2017 Luzern Luzern 5-0 HT 2-0 Aarau Aarau HAZ
12.12.2015 Aarau Aarau 3-4 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSVK
03.05.2015 Aarau Aarau 2-6 HT 0-2 Luzern Luzern İSV
22.02.2015 Luzern Luzern 4-0 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
1-0
AWAY Luzern
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau nicked a narrow win over Luzern 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Luzern at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Aarau had 39% of the ball to Luzern's 61%, shots finished 6-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aarau and 4.00 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Luzern?

Aarau 1-0 Luzern in the Switzerland - Cup on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated an Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Aarau 21%, draw 19%, Luzern 59%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Luzern), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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