15/09/2024
·
18:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-0
2nd Score
2-2
Celje vs Nafta Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
72%
23%
Draw
17%
20%
Away Win
10%
45%
Under 2.5
44%
55%
Over 2.5
56%
49%
BTTS Yes
43%
51%
BTTS No
57%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Celje v Nafta — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Celje
EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY
Nafta
EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% /
-7%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-12% /
-12%
1.94/1.21
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.00/2.33
-10%
/
-29%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
-13%
60%
Ball Possession
40%
17
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
3
436 · 83%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
248 · 70%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.5
Yellow Cards
1.3
Celje vs Nafta Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Celje
0W-1D-0L
AWAY
Nafta
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
64%
Ball Possession
36%
20
Total Shots
11
8
Shots on Target
5
14
Corners
5
2
Yellow Cards
5
The Meetings
22.11.2023
Nafta
1-1
HT 0-1
Celje
SLVNK
1-1
HT 0-1
Celje
SLVNK
Celje 3-1 Nafta — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Celje
3-1
AWAY
Nafta
68%
Ball Possession
32%
19
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Target
2
8
Corners
5
2
Yellow Cards
3
POST-MATCH
Celje vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Celje saw off Nafta 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Celje as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, Celje had 68% of the ball to Nafta's 32%, shots finished 19-8.
What was the final score of Celje vs Nafta?
Celje 3-1 Nafta in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Celje vs Nafta?
Before kick-off our model rated a Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Celje 58%, draw 23%, Nafta 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celje), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Celje)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
SLVN
More Slovenia - 1st Division
15 Sep 2024