Guingamp 1-0 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 15 Sep 2025

Guingamp
1-0 HT 1-0
Montpellier
📅15/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2025/2026

Guingamp vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.91
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
15%
5.81
X/2
15%
5.49
X/X
12%
4.53
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
16%
3.59
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
12.75
Value flag · 2/X at 12.75 — our 11% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
37%
Away Win
37%
+0.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guingamp v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +20%
1.33/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.54
+25% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / +15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
20.3 Crosses 15.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Guingamp vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Montpellier
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.71 xG 1.34
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
371 Passes 407
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.04.2019 Montpellier Montpellier 2-0 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR1
06.10.2018 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
17.02.2018 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 0-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR1
29.11.2017 Guingamp Guingamp 0-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
24.10.2017 Guingamp Guingamp 0-2 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FRLK
04.03.2017 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR1

Guingamp 1-0 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
1-0
AWAY Montpellier
1.29 xG 0.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
352 Passes 446
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp nicked a narrow win over Montpellier 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Guingamp found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Guingamp had 45% of the ball to Montpellier's 55%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.29 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Guingamp and 1.17 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Montpellier?

Guingamp 1-0 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 2 on 15/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated an Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 35%, draw 28%, Montpellier 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Montpellier), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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