Neftçi PFK 2-1 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.23
Over 2.5
44%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.6
No
56%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.8pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.6pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-14.8pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +16%
1.85/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.20
+14% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
315 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.10.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 4-3 HT 3-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
09.03.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 3-3 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
24.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
06.08.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
21.05.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-3 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
16.03.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-2 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK squeezed past Kapaz 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.83 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz?

Neftçi PFK 2-1 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 47%, draw 28%, Kapaz 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
15 Dec 2024
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