Barnsley 2-1 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 16 Jan 2024

Barnsley
2-1 HT 0-1
Carlisle United
📅16/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Barnsley vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.84
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 25% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.93
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
16.0
X/1
15%
3.76
X/2
9%
11.15
X/X
12%
5.77
2/1
8%
21.75
2/2
7%
8.61
2/X
6%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.3pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.4pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barnsley v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barnsley EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 21%
+10% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.91/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.49
+24% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
343 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 66%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
18.9 Crosses 18.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Barnsley vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barnsley
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Carlisle United
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.73 xG 2.07
71% Ball Possession 29%
18 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
400 Passes 108
77% Pass Accuracy 49%
21 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 2
3 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
13.08.2019 Barnsley Barnsley 0-3 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNLK

Barnsley 2-1 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barnsley
2-1
AWAY Carlisle United
1.18 xG 1.48
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
348 Passes 158
68% Pass Accuracy 50%
20 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barnsley vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley nicked a narrow win over Carlisle United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Barnsley as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Barnsley had 62% of the ball to Carlisle United's 38%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.18 to 1.48.

What was the final score of Barnsley vs Carlisle United?

Barnsley 2-1 Carlisle United in the England - 1st Division on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barnsley vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Barnsley 54%, draw 25%, Carlisle United 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnsley) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barnsley) ✗ BTTS No
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