Gent 0-1 Club Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Cup, 16 Jan 2024

📅16/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
34%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
16.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.5
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
6.17
X/2
11%
4.84
X/X
14%
4.36
2/1
6%
33.5
2/2
17%
3.2
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · X/1 at 6.17 — our 19% vs market 12.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.5pp
34%
Away Win
41%
-7.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gent EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Club Brugge EU Bookmakers 45%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
0.14/0.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.45/3.05
-90% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +68% / -58%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
396 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gent
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Club Brugge
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.96 xG 1.45
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
302 Passes 385
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 Club Brugge Club Brugge 2-0 HT 2-0 Gent Gent BEL
03.09.2023 Gent Gent 2-1 HT 1-1 Club Brugge Club Brugge BEL
26.02.2023 Club Brugge Club Brugge 2-0 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
06.11.2022 Gent Gent 2-0 HT 2-0 Club Brugge Club Brugge BEL
17.07.2022 Club Brugge Club Brugge 1-0 HT 1-0 Gent Gent BSK
02.03.2022 Club Brugge Club Brugge 0-3 HT 0-2 Gent Gent BEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gent
0-1
AWAY Club Brugge
0.61 xG 1.58
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
479 Passes 263
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gent vs Club Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club Brugge squeezed past Gent 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Club Brugge found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Gent had 63% of the ball to Club Brugge's 37%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.61 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gent and 1.00 for Club Brugge.

What was the final score of Gent vs Club Brugge?

Gent 0-1 Club Brugge in the Belgium - Cup on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gent vs Club Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gent win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Gent 37%, draw 29%, Club Brugge 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gent) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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