16/01/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Zürich II vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
Over 2.5
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
25%
27%
Draw
24%
37%
Away Win
50%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Zürich II v Aarau — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Zürich II
EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY
Aarau
EU Bookmakers 55%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-62% /
-62%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-49%
/
-34%
43%
Ball Possession
57%
10
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
6
252 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
473 · 83%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Zürich II vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Zürich II got the better of Aarau 4-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Zürich II found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
What was the final score of Zürich II vs Aarau?
Zürich II 4-2 Aarau in the Friendlies on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Zürich II vs Aarau?
Before kick-off our model rated an Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Zürich II 36%, draw 27%, Aarau 37%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aarau) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Aarau)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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HAZ
More Friendlies
16 Jan 2024