Mathare United 1-0 Ulinzi Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 16 Jan 2026

Mathare United
1-0 HT 1-0
Ulinzi Stars
📅16/01/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Kenya - Premier League – 2025/2026

Mathare United vs Ulinzi Stars Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
34%
2.83
Away
27%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.27
No
57%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
33%
+6.4pp
34%
Draw
32%
+1.3pp
27%
Away Win
35%
-7.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.5pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mathare United v Ulinzi Stars — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mathare United EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulinzi Stars EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.91/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.20
+7% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
285 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Mathare United vs Ulinzi Stars Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mathare United
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Ulinzi Stars
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
The Meetings
01.12.2024 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 0-0 HT 0-0 Mathare United Mathare United KEN

Mathare United 1-0 Ulinzi Stars — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mathare United
1-0
AWAY Ulinzi Stars
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mathare United vs Ulinzi Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mathare United nicked a narrow win over Ulinzi Stars 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 34% / 27%) promised a tight game; Mathare United found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mathare United had 52% of the ball to Ulinzi Stars's 48%, shots finished 8-11.

What was the final score of Mathare United vs Ulinzi Stars?

Mathare United 1-0 Ulinzi Stars in the Kenya - Premier League on 16/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mathare United vs Ulinzi Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mathare United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mathare United 39%, draw 34%, Ulinzi Stars 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mathare United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mathare United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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