Thun vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Thun v Aarau — Team-Based Signals
Thun vs Aarau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-2
HT 3-0
Thun
İSV2
2-0
HT 1-0
Aarau
İSV2
2-3
HT 0-3
Aarau
İSV2
1-0
HT 1-0
Thun
İSV2
2-2
HT 0-1
Thun
İSV2
2-2
HT 0-0
Aarau
İSV2
Thun 1-0 Aarau — Actual Match Statistics
Thun edged past Aarau 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Thun had 49% of the ball to Aarau's 51%, shots finished 28-12, expected goals 2.17 to 0.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Thun's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Thun and 2.17 for Aarau.
What was the final score of Thun vs Aarau?
Thun 1-0 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Thun vs Aarau?
Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Thun 53%, draw 28%, Aarau 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.