Slaven Belupo 1-1 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 16 Feb 2024

Slaven Belupo
1-1 HT 0-1
Istra 1961
📅16/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2023/2024

Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
14%
5.07
6+ Goals
9%
31.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.33 — our 37% vs market 35.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.3pp
34%
Draw
31%
+2.6pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-3.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.7pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Slaven Belupo v Istra 1961 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.07/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.06
+1% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
18.5 Crosses 16.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Istra 1961
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.80 xG 1.24
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
254 Passes 368
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
19.08.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-2 HT 2-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
27.05.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
31.03.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-0 HT 1-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
20.01.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
11.09.2022 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-3 HT 0-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR

Slaven Belupo 1-1 Istra 1961 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
1-1
AWAY Istra 1961
0.91 xG 0.52
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
370 Passes 273
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo and Istra 1961 shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 34% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 56% of the ball to Istra 1961's 44%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.91 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.33 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961?

Slaven Belupo 1-1 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slaven Belupo win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 34%, draw 34%, Istra 1961 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/34/33) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →