Leixoes 1-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 16 Feb 2024

Leixoes
1-1 HT 0-1
Paços De Ferreira
📅16/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Leixoes vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.51
Over 2.5
43%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.24
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
5.36
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.7pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.4pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leixoes v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 42%
-2% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.12/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.78
-20% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.6 Crosses 26.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Leixoes vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.43 xG 1.71
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
194 Passes 351
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 6
The Meetings
15.09.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-2 HT 0-2 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
20.09.2017 Leixoes Leixoes 1-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira PORLC
11.04.2010 Leixoes Leixoes 2-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
29.11.2009 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR
13.03.2009 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 4-0 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR
02.11.2008 Leixoes Leixoes 2-1 HT 2-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR

Leixoes 1-1 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes
1-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.52 xG 1.19
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
306 Passes 240
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leixoes vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes and Paços De Ferreira couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Leixoes had 57% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 43%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.52 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leixoes had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leixoes and 1.17 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Leixoes vs Paços De Ferreira?

Leixoes 1-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 32%, draw 30%, Paços De Ferreira 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Paços De Ferreira), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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