Famalicao 2-1 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 Feb 2024

Famalicao
2-1 HT 1-1
Rio Ave
📅16/02/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Famalicao vs Rio Ave Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
5.03
6+ Goals
8%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.01
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
14%
4.35
X/2
8%
6.73
X/X
12%
3.68
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
14%
5.57
2/X
8%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.3pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Famalicao v Rio Ave — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.30/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.57
-13% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.6 Crosses 17.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Famalicao vs Rio Ave Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 0.79
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
311 Passes 384
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
26.05.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-2 HT 0-2 Famalicao Famalicao POR
22.01.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 0-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
21.02.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
12.12.2020 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POK
04.10.2020 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR

Famalicao 2-1 Rio Ave — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
2-1
AWAY Rio Ave
1.09 xG 2.08
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
309 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao edged past Rio Ave 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Famalicao had 49% of the ball to Rio Ave's 51%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.09 to 2.08 — the balance of chances actually favoured Rio Ave.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Famalicao and 1.00 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Rio Ave?

Famalicao 2-1 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 43%, draw 27%, Rio Ave 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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