Central Espanol 2-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 16 Feb 2026

📅16/02/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
21%
4.08
Away Pick
58%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.82
Over
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
42%
4-5
18%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
34%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
CA Penarol win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+5.9pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.2pp
58%
Away Win
64%
-6.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Espanol EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 69%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
275 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Espanol
2-1
AWAY CA Penarol
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Central Espanol vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Espanol squeezed past CA Penarol 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had CA Penarol at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Central Espanol had 34% of the ball to CA Penarol's 66%, shots finished 8-18.

What was the final score of Central Espanol vs CA Penarol?

Central Espanol 2-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 16/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Espanol vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Central Espanol 21%, draw 21%, CA Penarol 58%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5
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