Arconatese 0-1 Real Calepina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under
59%
Over
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
No Pick
60%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
38%
4-5
18%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
19%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
42%
Away Win
48%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arconatese The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Calepina The Market 52%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -59% / -59%
0.00/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
-100% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -35%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Arconatese vs Real Calepina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Calepina squeezed past Arconatese 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Real Calepina as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Arconatese vs Real Calepina?

Arconatese 0-1 Real Calepina in the Italy - Serie D on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arconatese vs Real Calepina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Calepina win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arconatese 31%, draw 28%, Real Calepina 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Calepina), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Calepina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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