Sassuolo (K) 1-0 Fiorentina (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
24%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+2.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo (K) EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina (K) EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
272 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
Crosses 12.0
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo (K)
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Fiorentina (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
6 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
11.12.2023 Sassuolo (K) Sassuolo (K) 1-2 HT 0-0 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) İTKSA
16.09.2023 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) 2-1 HT 1-1 Sassuolo (K) Sassuolo (K) İTKSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo (K)
1-0
AWAY Fiorentina (K)
0.74 xG 1.42
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
283 Passes 264
73% Pass Accuracy 68%
14 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Sassuolo (K) vs Fiorentina (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo (K) nicked a narrow win over Fiorentina (K) 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina (K) at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sassuolo (K) had 50% of the ball to Fiorentina (K)'s 50%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.74 to 1.42 — on chances, Fiorentina (K) could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fiorentina (K) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sassuolo (K) and 2.00 for Fiorentina (K).

What was the final score of Sassuolo (K) vs Fiorentina (K)?

Sassuolo (K) 1-0 Fiorentina (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo (K) vs Fiorentina (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo (K) 31%, draw 25%, Fiorentina (K) 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fiorentina (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina (K)) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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