Kapfenberger SV 1-1 Sturm Graz II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
34%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.22
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
28%
3.01
6+ Goals
13%
9.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.38
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
16%
4.31
X/2
14%
8.2
X/X
13%
5.61
2/1
5%
21.45
2/2
13%
5.75
2/X
4%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-8.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.7pp
34%
Away Win
25%
+9.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
2.04/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/2.14
+22% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
313 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapfenberger SV
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Sturm Graz II
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
27.08.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 3-3 HT 0-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
17.03.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 3-1 HT 2-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
30.10.2022 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 0-1 HT 0-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kapfenberger SV
1-1
AWAY Sturm Graz II
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kapfenberger SV vs Sturm Graz II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kapfenberger SV and Sturm Graz II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Kapfenberger SV at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Kapfenberger SV had 41% of the ball to Sturm Graz II's 59%, shots finished 8-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kapfenberger SV had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Kapfenberger SV and 1.33 for Sturm Graz II.

What was the final score of Kapfenberger SV vs Sturm Graz II?

Kapfenberger SV 1-1 Sturm Graz II in the Austria - 1st Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapfenberger SV vs Sturm Graz II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kapfenberger SV win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kapfenberger SV 43%, draw 23%, Sturm Graz II 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kapfenberger SV), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kapfenberger SV) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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