Moreland City 0-1 Melbourne Knights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.09
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
50%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
36%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
17%
+7.6pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.0pp
50%
Away Win
63%
-12.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.1pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreland City EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Knights EU Bookmakers 67%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.76/2.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/0.83
-28% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +19%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
286 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 22.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreland City
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Knights
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.07.2023 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 2-1 HT 1-0 Moreland City Moreland City AVNPL
15.04.2023 Moreland City Moreland City 1-4 HT 1-1 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
POST-MATCH Moreland City vs Melbourne Knights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Knights squeezed past Moreland City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne Knights as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Melbourne Knights led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Moreland City and 3.00 for Melbourne Knights.

What was the final score of Moreland City vs Melbourne Knights?

Moreland City 0-1 Melbourne Knights in the Australia - National Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreland City vs Melbourne Knights?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Knights win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Moreland City 24%, draw 26%, Melbourne Knights 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Knights) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Knights) ✗ Over 2.5
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