Desportiva ES 0-1 Rio Branco-VN — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 16 Mar 2024

Desportiva ES
0-1
Rio Branco-VN
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Capixaba – 2024

Desportiva ES vs Rio Branco-VN Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
Over
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
45%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
15%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
3%
2/2
9%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Desportiva ES v Rio Branco-VN — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Desportiva ES The Market 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Branco-VN The Market 24%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/2.34
-40% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Desportiva ES vs Rio Branco-VN Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Desportiva ES
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Rio Branco-VN
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
20.02.2022 Desportiva ES Desportiva ES 2-2 HT 0-2 Rio Branco-VN Rio Branco-VN BRCAP
08.05.2021 Rio Branco-VN Rio Branco-VN 2-0 HT 0-0 Desportiva ES Desportiva ES BRCAP
POST-MATCH Desportiva ES vs Rio Branco-VN
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Branco-VN squeezed past Desportiva ES 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Desportiva ES at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Rio Branco-VN led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Desportiva ES and 2.00 for Rio Branco-VN.

What was the final score of Desportiva ES vs Rio Branco-VN?

Desportiva ES 0-1 Rio Branco-VN in the Brazil - Capixaba on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Desportiva ES vs Rio Branco-VN?

Before kick-off our model rated a Desportiva ES win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Desportiva ES 50%, draw 27%, Rio Branco-VN 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Desportiva ES) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Desportiva ES) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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