Samtredia 1-3 Gagra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
34%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+2.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samtredia EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Gagra EU Bookmakers 43%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.72/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.84
-44% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +40%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samtredia
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Gagra
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.11.2023 Gagra Gagra 4-3 HT 2-3 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
23.09.2023 Samtredia Samtredia 3-1 HT 3-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
28.05.2023 Gagra Gagra 0-1 HT 0-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samtredia
1-3
AWAY Gagra
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Samtredia vs Gagra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gagra got the better of Samtredia 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Gagra found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Samtredia had 42% of the ball to Gagra's 58%, shots finished 9-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Samtredia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Samtredia and 1.67 for Gagra.

What was the final score of Samtredia vs Gagra?

Samtredia 1-3 Gagra in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samtredia vs Gagra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Samtredia win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Samtredia 38%, draw 28%, Gagra 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Samtredia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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