Hamrun Spartans 1-2 Marsaxlokk FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.75
Over 2.5
32%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.03
No
62%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.4pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.1pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.3pp
68%
Under 2.5
53%
+14.8pp
32%
Over 2.5
47%
-14.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
45%
-7.0pp
62%
BTTS No
55%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamrun Spartans EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsaxlokk FC EU Bookmakers 21%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.55/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.35
+9% / +82% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +74% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamrun Spartans
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Marsaxlokk FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
16.12.2022 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
07.09.2022 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 1-0 HT 1-0 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamrun Spartans
1-2
AWAY Marsaxlokk FC
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsaxlokk FC squeezed past Hamrun Spartans 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hamrun Spartans at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hamrun Spartans had 59% of the ball to Marsaxlokk FC's 41%, shots finished 10-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Hamrun Spartans had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hamrun Spartans and 0.00 for Marsaxlokk FC.

What was the final score of Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC?

Hamrun Spartans 1-2 Marsaxlokk FC in the Malta - Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamrun Spartans win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hamrun Spartans 50%, draw 30%, Marsaxlokk FC 20%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hamrun Spartans) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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