Lexington 1-0 Chattanooga Red Wolves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.8pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.9pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.3pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Chattanooga Red Wolves EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.54/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.32
+12% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
15.5 Crosses 16.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lexington
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Chattanooga Red Wolves
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.76 xG 1.35
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
300 Passes 312
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.09.2023 Lexington Lexington 3-5 HT 1-3 Chattanooga Red Wolves Chattanooga Red Wolves USL1
15.06.2023 Lexington Lexington 2-0 HT 1-0 Chattanooga Red Wolves Chattanooga Red Wolves USL1
30.04.2023 Chattanooga Red Wolves Chattanooga Red Wolves 3-1 HT 0-0 Lexington Lexington USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
1-0
AWAY Chattanooga Red Wolves
0.42 xG 1.56
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 5
232 Passes 315
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
9 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lexington vs Chattanooga Red Wolves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lexington squeezed past Chattanooga Red Wolves 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 30% — and on the day Lexington made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lexington had 43% of the ball to Chattanooga Red Wolves's 57%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.42 to 1.56 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chattanooga Red Wolves.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Chattanooga Red Wolves led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lexington and 2.67 for Chattanooga Red Wolves.

What was the final score of Lexington vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

Lexington 1-0 Chattanooga Red Wolves in the USA - USL League 1 on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lexington 40%, draw 30%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lexington), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lexington) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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