16/03/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
0-2
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
Over
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No Pick
54%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
31%
4-5
26%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
31%
Home Win
18%
25%
Draw
23%
44%
Away Win
58%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
NAPSA Stars v Nkana — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
NAPSA Stars
The Market 21%
Head to Head
AWAY
Nkana
The Market 62%
+63% /
+63%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+5%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
43%
Ball Possession
57%
8
Total Shots
15
3
Shots on Target
6
3
Corners
6
270 · 70%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
388 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
NAPSA Stars squeezed past Nkana 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Nkana at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
What was the final score of NAPSA Stars vs Nkana?
NAPSA Stars 1-0 Nkana in the Zambiya - Super League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for NAPSA Stars vs Nkana?
Before kick-off our model rated an Nkana win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split NAPSA Stars 31%, draw 25%, Nkana 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Nkana), Over 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Nkana)
✗ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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ZAM
More Zambiya - Super League
16 Mar 2024