La Serena 1-0 Union La Calera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Chile - Premier League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.5pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.9pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME La Serena EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Union La Calera EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.11/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.34
-21% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
269 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
18.7 Crosses 14.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME La Serena
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Union La Calera
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.31 xG 1.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
294 Passes 303
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2022 La Serena La Serena 2-1 HT 0-1 Union La Calera Union La Calera ŞİL
22.05.2022 Union La Calera Union La Calera 1-1 HT 0-0 La Serena La Serena ŞİL
29.11.2021 Union La Calera Union La Calera 1-2 HT 0-1 La Serena La Serena ŞİL
14.08.2021 La Serena La Serena 1-2 HT 0-1 Union La Calera Union La Calera ŞİL
15.01.2021 La Serena La Serena 0-3 HT 0-1 Union La Calera Union La Calera ŞİL
15.02.2020 Union La Calera Union La Calera 2-1 HT 1-1 La Serena La Serena ŞİL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME La Serena
1-0
AWAY Union La Calera
0.44 xG 0.36
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 9
226 Passes 386
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
7 Box Touches 11
8 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH La Serena vs Union La Calera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

La Serena edged past Union La Calera 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; La Serena found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, La Serena had 38% of the ball to Union La Calera's 62%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.44 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union La Calera led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for La Serena and 1.67 for Union La Calera.

What was the final score of La Serena vs Union La Calera?

La Serena 1-0 Union La Calera in the Chile - Premier League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for La Serena vs Union La Calera?

Before kick-off our model rated a La Serena win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split La Serena 38%, draw 26%, Union La Calera 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (La Serena), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (La Serena) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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