Al Markhiya 3-2 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 16 Apr 2024

📅16/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
47%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.04
2-3 Goals
39%
2.08
4-5 Goals
26%
2.56
6+ Goals
14%
5.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+5.1pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.3pp
48%
Away Win
57%
-9.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.2pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Markhiya EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 61%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.95/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.49/0.76
-9% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -19%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
289 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 81%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
11.9 Crosses 7.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Markhiya
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
1.02 xG 2.63
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 Passes 355
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 36
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.09.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 3-3 HT 3-0 Al Markhiya Al Markhiya KATYK
26.08.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-0 HT 0-0 Al Markhiya Al Markhiya KAT
02.04.2023 Al Markhiya Al Markhiya 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
15.10.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 3-1 HT 1-1 Al Markhiya Al Markhiya KATYK
13.09.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-1 HT 0-1 Al Markhiya Al Markhiya KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Markhiya
3-2
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.33 xG 3.33
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 25
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 10
232 Passes 459
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 41
10 Crosses 23
6 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Al Markhiya vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Markhiya squeezed past Al Gharafa 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Al Gharafa at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Al Markhiya had 37% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 63%, shots finished 10-25, expected goals 1.33 to 3.33 — the balance of chances actually favoured Al Gharafa.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Markhiya and 2.20 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Al Markhiya vs Al Gharafa?

Al Markhiya 3-2 Al Gharafa in the Qatar League on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Markhiya vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Al Markhiya 27%, draw 26%, Al Gharafa 48%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Gharafa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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